Gorgeous George Is Back

Strong stuff as ever in the Daily Mail today from Max Hastings, extrapolating from George Galloway’s upset victory in the Bradford West by-election to argue that the win reflects not just local Muslim sentiment and dislike for Ed Milliband’s Labour Party but a collapse in trust between voters and the political class.

The YouGov poll from months ago that he cites is indeed alarming. Just 24 per cent of respondents believed MPs are capable of “debating issues of public concern in a sensible and considered way.”  And only 15 per cent saw Parliament as “representing the interests and wishes of people like me.” Barely one-tenth of voters (12 per cent) thought politicians capable of understanding their own daily lives.



How The Mexican Police Bungled The Manhunt for El Chapo — Exclusive

Earlier this month, Mexican officials leaked to AP an exclusive on the hunt for the world’s most powerful drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán, the elusive head of the Sinaloa cartel.

They boasted that they had come close to capturing him in late February in Baja California at a resort in Los Cabos where a day earlier U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton held meetings with foreign ministers from the G20.

Jose Cuitláhuac Salinas Martinez, Mexico’s assistant attorney general in charge of organized crime investigations, said it was a near miss in the government’s efforts to arrest the man who has become one of the world’s top fugitives since he escaped from a Mexican prison in a laundry truck in 2001.

The official angled his comments to fuel speculation that authorities are near to capturing Guzmán, something President Felipe Calderón  would dearly love to accomplish before he leaves office at the end of the year. “When asked if authorities are close, he just smiled,” according to the AP dispatch.

But AP was told only half the story by Jose Cuitláhuac Salinas Martinez. Mexican and US security sources tell me that the interview was an attempt to muddy the waters and to obscure the reasons why Mexican police failed to get El Chapo in Los Cabos.

They say it was a preemptive strike to head off any potential bad press from the near miss.

Poor Mexico. So Close To The United States; So Far From God.

And since that March 12 AP story Mexican officials – notably the Secretary for Public Security, Genaro Luna Garcia – have continued to do their best to mislead by leaking, for example, a claim to Reforma newspaper and Univision that a prostitute’s period saved the drug boss from being arrested.

According to that story one of Guzmán’s men hired the prostitute for the billionaire drug lord. The Mexican daily Reforma said the prostitute was blindfolded and taken to a rented home in Los Cabos without being told who her client would be.

And Cuitláhuac Salinas Martinez, told the paper that when El Chapo arrived the hooker couldn’t “perform the services she was hired for because she was menstruating.” El Chapo left the house with the intention of returning, and it was while he was away Mexican authorities raided the house.

According to Univision, “Salinas Martinez suggested that had it not been for the postponed encounter, authorities might have finally arrested Guzmán.”

This isn’t what Mexican security sources tell me. The operation, they say, was bungled from the start and the fault rests with the federal police.

AP speculated in the original dispatch that El Chapo’s narrow escape raises the suspicion that he was tipped off. He was, U.S. and Mexican security sources told me, but not by some corrupt official or paid off cop. The federal police alerted El Chapo inadvertently, to the fury of the Americans, by making two major mistakes.

Mexican police chiefs bungled the opportunity handed them by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, who through cell phone monitoring by the National Security Agency provided the electronic intelligence that for the first time in years pinpointed El Chapo’s exact whereabouts — in this case Los Cabos.

“This was the first time that we knew exactly where Guzmán was,” says a senior Mexican security source. “All the other occasions when we have been close it was only after the fact that we realized we had come close to El Chapo,” he adds. “On those other occasions, we have raided a property but only knew in advance that there was a high-value Sinaloa cartel target but we didn’t know that it was El Chapo – we hoped it was, but weren’t sure. This time we knew it was him and this was our best chance in years to get him.”

El Chapo is as careful as Osama bin Laden was in using cell phones, knowing full well that the U.S. has tremendous capability to pinpoint targets through voice recognition and honing in on particular phone numbers. Like other cartels, the Sinaloa Federation uses pre-paid cell phones and cartel members change their phones several times a day to evade the American eavesdroppers.

On this occasion one of El Chapo’s lieutenants held on to a phone for too long and security sources tell me that Guzmán phoned him. As a result the NSA’s voice-recognition systems that had been eavesdropping on that mobile phone identified El Chapo’s voice and traced the phone the drug lord was using. “He called one of his lieutenants, whose phone was being monitored,” says a U.S. source. “That guy presumably was being lazy and keeping a cell phone for way too long.”

The NSA alerted DEA intelligence chiefs, who in turn informed the Mexicans. The sources say there was then an argument between the Mexican federal police and the Mexican military over who would take the lead in the security operation to seize El Chapo.

Secretary for Public Security, Genaro Luna Garcia, who will leave office with Calderón, insisted this was a federal police matter. “He saw this as his triumphant moment, too,” says a Mexican source. “He won the argument by appealing to Calderón ,” he adds.

The operation was placed in the hands of Mexico’s federal police chief, Maribel Cervantes Guerrero, the first woman to hold the position. She was only promoted to the job eleven days before the DEA alerted the Mexicans that they’d picked up Guzmán talking with a subordinate.

Last autumn, President Calderón disclosed, “the Mexican Army “probably a couple of times has been in the place where hours before Chapo was.”  He added: “Sooner or later he will fall.”

And the moment seemed to have arrived in Los Cabos.

But from the start, U.S. and Mexican sources say, the planning was clumsy by Cervantes and that she was more focused on keeping the military subordinate and distant from the operation. She was supported in this by her boss, Luna Garcia, who saw the capture of El Chapo as the perfect end to his ministerial career and he didn’t intend to share any of the kudos with the military, say the sources.

“A number of things went wrong right from the being,” says a U.S. source. “First off, they were too obvious on the ground.”

But the biggest blunder came when the Mexican police inadvertently called both the subordinate’s phone and the one El Chapo was using to get a final confirmation of their exact whereabouts just hours before the raid was scheduled to unfold. “This was enough to tip off El Chapo that something was amiss,” says the U.S. source. “He fled shortly before the operation was launched.”

The botched operation ignited a firestorm of recriminations behind the scenes between the Americans and Mexicans with formal protests being lodged by U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and his Obama Cabinet colleague, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Mexican and U.S. sources say.

“Those guys were shouting at each other,” says a Mexican source.

U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration officials stationed at the U.S. embassy in Mexico City met shortly after the failed operation with President Calderón to complain.

They expressed their frustration at the poor planning and questionable oversight that led to El Chapo’s flight before federal police could nab him at the mansion in the exclusive Punta Ballena district overlooking the Gulf of California.

The failure to nab El Chapo has undermined the trust that was being built up between U.S. and Mexican law-enforcement and has seriously undermined capturing Guzmán in the near future, say the sources. “This near miss is just going to make him even more cautious,” says a DEA source. “It turns out that recently he has been less in Durango and Sinaloa, where we assumed he was mainly hiding, and has been moving in a triangle between Tijuana, Baja California and Mexicali. Now he will change everything.”

Forbes magazine ranks Guzmán as one of the world’s richest men and estimates that he’s worth more than $1bn.  He has a $7m bounty on his head but yet again El Chapo has managed to elude a manhunt every bit as high-tech and intense as the one mounted for Al Qaeda’s leader.

It is an escape that has seriously impacted on the what has developed into fairly good cooperation between Mexican federal law enforcement and the DEA over the years of Calderón’s administration.

With the Americans on the warpath over the bungling, Genaro Luna Garcia added oil to the fire by leaking – yet again to Reforma – a story about how the DEA had screwed up an operation and laundered some cash for El Chapo—a kind of money-laundering Fast and Furious, a gun-tracking operation launched by the Americans that has backfired badly.

The background on the recent hunt for El Chapo is in my detailed report for Agora published last month.

Scalia’s Impartiality

It is pretty clear which way Justice Antonin Scalia is going to fall when it comes to deciding on the constitutionality of President Obama’s healthcare law. He appeared yesterday to be contemptuous with his mocking reference, for example, to the “Cornhusker Kickback” – a provision that in fact was stripped out before the health care reform was passed.

Chief Justice Roberts, though, as ever was even-handed in his questioning, although that was less the case with the Democrat-inclined Justices, who appeared cheerleading for the reform.

Looks like a close decision, as with Bush v. Gore and the Citizens United case. And a close decision isn’t going to help calm political passions.

Tijuana and the Kidnap Victim

An HBO movie will surely be made about this bizarre – and apparently tragic – incident in Tijuana yesterday. According to one version of the story, a kidnap victim managed to grab in the house he was being held in an AK47 and kill his two assailants.

After leaving the safe house, the semi-nude and handcuffed victim saw an SUV and stole the vehicle after shooting dead the two body guards who were guarding it. The bodyguards were apparently unconnected with the kidnapping and worked for a local businessman.

The police say that the victim then drove a short distance before confronting municipal police and he began firing at them unprovoked. In the return fire he was killed.

One of the kidnappers was reportedly a former policeman. Maybe that has something to do with the victim’s behavior. There’s got to be a lot more to this story….

More on Bob

Damian Thompson over at the Daily Telegraph has picked up on the unfolding Bob Fisk story. Bob apparently feels the criticism he’s coming under can all be put down to malice because he is a “moderately successful journalist.” In other words, it is all a matter of jealously. Well, I would have thought Ian Black, Hugh Pope and myself could all be described as moderately successful journalists, too. No jealously here, Bob. I just called it like I see it.

Yes, Precisely

 More Budget woes for Britain’s Coalition government. Tory MP David Ruffley on the BBC today warned that “pensioners are going to be bellyaching about this for a while. The grey vote is powerful and [Osborne] could have thought better of it and found the money elsewhere.”

According to the Daily Mail, the Chancellor, George Osborne, blames the Liberal Democrats for the row over the “granny tax” on the grounds that if they hadn’t leaked all the popular measures before the Budget, then no one would have paid much attention to the phasing out of the age-related tax allowance. Keep telling yourself that George.

Read more:

And The Cartel Killings Don’t Stop

Just days ahead of the Pope’s arrival in Mexico gunmen in the western part of the country ambushed and killed a dozen policemen and seriously wounded another eleven. The ambushed police officers were attacked as they searched for bodies following the discovery of ten severed heads in Teloloapan, a town near the beach resort of Acapulco.

The March 18 ambush amounted to the worst mass killing of policemen since June 2010 when a dozen officers were slain during an ambush on a police convoy in the central coastal city of Zitacuaro.

The ambush came just hours after security forces were tipped off by an anonymous phone caller about the beheadings. The caller said the heads had been dumped outside the municipal slaughterhouse. According to a statement issued to the press by the state Attorney General’s Office (PGJE) ten severed heads were found subsequently by police and soldiers.

Two narco-messages were found by the severed heads. One read: “This is going to happen to all who keep supporting the FM.”

The abbreviation FM is thought to refer to the cartel La Familia Michoacana, which splintered last year after several of its top leaders were either captured or killed by security forces, including the cartel’s overall leader Nazario Moreno’s, who died in a shootout with federal police in December 2010.

Teloloapan, which has a population of about 20,000, is in a steamy, mountainous area known as Tierra Caliente which cuts across Guerrero and Michoacan states. Tierra Caliente has long been a haven for drug traffickers.

In 2010, nine police officers were kidnapped in Teloloapan. The bodies of eight of the officers were found later, six of who had been had been dismembered. After that incident, federal and state authorities mounted Operation Warrior Insurance, a coordinated law-enforcement effort involving the military and state and local police forces which is still ongoing.

In the last few months, the remnants of La Familia, which was once the largest suppler of methamphetamines to drug dealers in the United States, have been locked in a vicious turf war with rival cartels, notably a faction of former members known as Los Caballeros Templarios.

Last year, Guerrero state saw a dramatic increase in violence and, according to federal Ministry of Public Security figures, between January to March in 2011 there were 170 drug-related slayings in the state 60 percent of which occurred in Acapulco. The first two months of this year and there have been 292 murders in the state.

Bob Wrong Again

I see Private Eye magazine in its column the “Street of Shame” has some things to add this week about Bob Fisk, the Middle East correspondent. Bob believes the Anglo-American media demonstrated double-standards when it mourned and covered extensively the recent death in Syria of Sunday Times journalist Marie Colvin, a friend of mine and one of the bravest reporters I have had the privilege to know.

As far as he is concerned the Anglo-American media doesn’t cover enough the deaths of Arabs and has ignored Israeli excesses in Gaza. Private Eye has some useful corrective comments to make and also cites a blog posting of mine on Bob’s tendency to make things up, embellish and to lift other reporters’ stories without attribution.

One thing that Private Eye failed to note is that Marie devoted her career to ensuring that Sunday Times readers were informed of the horrors of war, and reported movingly, for example, on Iraqi civilians killed by allied bombs.

Animal Spirits?

Writing in the latest issue of the (UK) Spectator (the article is hidden behind a pay-wall), the magazine’s editor, James Forsyth, maintains that Osborne has been radical with yesterday’s Budget. The article is entitled “Osborne goes for growth.” And he says among Treasury officials “there’s a realization that three percent growth won’t come without reform: there’ll be no reward without political risk.”

And the reform he’s talking about? The cut in the higher rate of income tax and the two percent reduction in the corporation tax rate. As I argue below, both were sensible cuts but hardly radical and should have gone further. They are not going to secure for the country three percent growth per year. Much more than that is needed to unleash the animal spirits.