A late surge in Iowa by Rick Santorum has the chattering class…well, chattering. The former Pennsylvanian Senator has worked Iowa hard and the state tends to reward those politicians willing to engage in close personal encounters – retail politics is all in the Hawkeye state.
But the big question is whether the sudden enthusiasm for Santorum is a reflection less of his innate skills or what he has to offer than the continuing lack of excitement for frontrunner Mitt Romney.
The GOP primary race from the get-go has been about a search by the Republican faithful for a conservative alternative to Romney. A good showing for Santorum – being in the final three – would presumably put paid to Michelle Bachmann: a poor showing for her in Iowa, a state she too has banked on, would imprison her in the low single digits from here on.
My prediction for Iowa: Romney pulls off a win because the anti-Romney vote gets hopelessly split with Ron Paul coming in second and possibly Santorum third. Curiously, Newt Gingrich just hasn’t taken fire in Iowa, despite his national surge. Maybe that’s because his field operation in the Hawkeye State was late in being formed. Some good blog reporting by The Hill’s Niall Stanage here.