Iowa: Who Won? Don’t Know. Never Mind!

So apparently Iowa is now too close to call and maybe Rick Santorum won after all. And we trot around the globe encouraging others to follow our democratic processes!

Both the US and UK have excellent non-profit agencies funded by US AID and the Department of International Development counseling various electoral commissions in foreign countries, training poll-workers and advising on electoral process and we can’t get it right ourselves — the Florida debacle and now this in Iowa.

At the last UK general election there were several constituencies where thousands of voters were prevented from voting. But there were no re-runs — when there should have been. Now what does the Bible say, “And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?”

NBC points out that the Iowa Caucus results are not binding, meaning the results do not dictate which candidate the delegates at the national conventions in the summer vote for. “So not having an actual ‘winner’  of the caucuses will not have as big of an impact as it would in other binding states,” the news report states.

Maybe so, but declaring Mitt Romney did have an impact on the race: it allowed the former Massachusetts governor to build up a sense of inevitability about his candidacy that likely influenced some voters in New Hampshire and almost certainly helped his campaign fundraising. In short, it had a distorting affect.

 

The Surprising Rise of Rick Santorum.

A late surge in Iowa by Rick Santorum has the chattering class…well, chattering.  The former Pennsylvanian Senator has worked Iowa hard and the state tends to reward those politicians willing to engage in close personal encounters – retail politics is all in the Hawkeye state.

But the big question is whether the sudden enthusiasm for Santorum is a reflection less of his innate skills or what he has to offer than the continuing lack of excitement for frontrunner Mitt Romney.

The GOP primary race from the get-go has been about a search by the Republican faithful for a conservative alternative to Romney. A good showing for Santorum – being in the final three – would presumably put paid to Michelle Bachmann: a poor showing for her in Iowa, a state she too has banked on, would imprison her in the low single digits from here on.

My prediction for Iowa: Romney pulls off a win because the anti-Romney vote gets hopelessly split with Ron Paul coming in second and possibly Santorum third. Curiously, Newt Gingrich just hasn’t taken fire in Iowa, despite his national surge. Maybe that’s because his field operation in the Hawkeye State was late in being formed.  Some good blog reporting by The Hill’s Niall Stanage here.